Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0623 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already dropped significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I avoided selling. A second test of 1.0623 took place while the MACD was in the oversold zone, enabling the implementation of Scenario #2 for buying. However, weak Eurozone data prevented the euro from achieving a meaningful upward correction. In the second half of the day, data from the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is unlikely to support the euro, shifting attention to speeches by FOMC members Christopher Waller and Thomas Barkin. A more cautious stance by policymakers regarding potential rate cuts could trigger another euro sell-off and bolster the US dollar. For my intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, buying the euro is possible at around 1.0635 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0665. At 1.0665, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point move from the entry point. A significant rise in the euro today appears improbable.It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise before entering a buy trade.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0610 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. An upward movement toward resistance levels at 1.0635 and 1.0665 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0610 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0582, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point move upward from that level. Pressure on the pair will return if there's a failed attempt at growth early in US trading.It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline before entering a sell trade.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0635 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. Declines to support levels at 1.0610 and 1.0582 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: The level where buy orders can be placed.
• Thick green line: The expected level to set a Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: The level where sell orders can be placed.
• Thick red line: The expected level to set a Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's crucial to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Advice for Beginner Traders:

• Always approach market entry decisions with caution.
• Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize risk. Without them, you risk significant losses, particularly when trading large volumes without effective money management.
• Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the example provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally unprofitable for intraday traders.