Early in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.0859, below the bearish trend channel that has been forming since September 30th. It reached the 2/8 Murray area and the 21 SMA, which in turn coincided with the top of the bearish trend channel, resulting in strong resistance.

In case the euro breaks the bearish trend channel and consolidates above 1.0866, the outlook could be positive for the euro. Therefore, EUR/USD could reach the psychological level of 1.10 which coincides with the 200 EMA around 1.1003.

Technically, the euro is showing a positive signal. So, we believe it could consolidate above 1.0864 in the next few days, which could be seen as a signal to buy in case EUR/USD settles above this area. Then, it could reach 6/8 of Murray at 1.1108.

Conversely, if the instrument returns below the 21 SMA and trades within the downtrend channel, EUR/USD could reach 1/8 Murray around 1.0803.