Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 143.49 occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I didn't buy the dollar and missed out on a solid upward move.

Most likely, USD/JPY will continue trading within a channel, with the advantage of dollar sellers and yen buyers. Considering the divergence in central bank policies, U.S. tariffs, and the trade war do not currently support the dollar, the medium-term downward trend in USD/JPY remains intact. The pair's movements will also likely depend on updates about U.S.–Japan trade negotiations and comments from Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan officials. Since Japanese authorities stated yesterday that they are no longer willing to make further trade concessions, tensions may escalate. However, this is unlikely to become a reason to buy the dollar since the yen, as a safe-haven asset, may benefit even from such developments.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point near 143.25 (green line on the chart), with a target at 143.94 (thicker green line). Around 143.94, I plan to exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip pullback). It's best to return to buying the pair after corrections and deeper drawdowns in USD/JPY.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 142.80 twice a row while the MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Targets would be 143.25 and 143.94.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 142.80 (red line on the chart), which would likely trigger a sharp decline. The primary target for sellers is 142.25, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions (expecting a 20–25 pip bounce).

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 143.25 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upside potential and cause a reversal to the downside. Targets would be 142.80 and 142.25.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.