In my morning forecast, I identified the 1.0539 level as a key area for market entry. The 5-minute chart shows that a decline and a false breakout at this level provided an entry point for long positions, resulting in a 30-point rise in the pair. The technical outlook for the second half of the day remains unchanged.

Opening Long Positions on EUR/USD

Trading remains range-bound, but buyers are making attempts to extend the upward correction. In the second half of the day, U.S. housing market index data from NAHB will be released, followed by a speech from FOMC member Austin Goolsbee. The statistics are unlikely to significantly influence the dollar's direction, so market focus will likely shift to Goolsbee's remarks.

If the pair comes under renewed pressure, a false breakout near 1.0539, similar to the morning setup, would be a suitable condition to build long positions, targeting a rise to 1.0580. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm an entry point for further buying, with targets at 1.0617 and 1.0653, where profits should be taken.

If EUR/USD continues to decline and there is no activity near 1.0539, I will consider entering only after a false breakout near the next support at 1.0497 (the monthly low). Alternatively, I may open long positions immediately from a rebound at 1.0474, targeting a 30-35 point correction within the day.

Opening Short Positions on EUR/USD

If the pair rises, sellers will likely defend the 1.0580 resistance level. A false breakout at this level would provide an entry point for short positions, targeting a decline to 1.0539, which marks the midpoint of the range. Below this level, moving averages currently favor the bulls, but a breakout and retest from below would confirm further selling opportunities toward 1.0497 and 1.0474, where profits should be taken.

If the pair rises above 1.0580 after data or ignores Fed comments, euro buyers may attempt to build a correction early in the week. In this case, I will delay selling until 1.0617 is tested and only enter short positions after a failed breakout. Alternatively, I will sell on a rebound from 1.0653, targeting a 30-35 point downward correction.

Indicator Signals

Moving Averages:

The pair is trading just above the 30 and 50-period moving averages on the H1 chart, signaling potential euro growth.

Bollinger Bands:

In the event of a decline, the lower band near 1.0520 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise.
  • 50-period (yellow on the chart).
  • 30-period (green on the chart).
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Measures momentum and trend direction.
  • Fast EMA: 12-period.
  • Slow EMA: 26-period.
  • Signal Line (SMA): 9-period.
• Bollinger Bands: Identify volatility and potential support/resistance levels.
  • Period: 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as hedge funds, institutions, and individual traders using futures for speculation.
• Non-commercial long positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Non-commercial short positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Net position: The difference between long and short positions held by non-commercial traders.