Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The 155.64 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. However, the chart shows that the pair failed to rally, leading to losses. By the mid-American session, after traders disregarded strong U.S. retail sales data, the pressure returned to the pair. The 155.19 price test coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling. As a result, the pair dropped by over 100 pips, with profits locked near the target level of 154.81.

Today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks spiked volatility and maintained pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, his speech lacked specifics, making it unlikely that demand for the yen would persist for long. I will focus primarily on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for the intraday strategy.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1:

I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 154.93 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.69 (thicker green line). Around 155.69, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip pullback from this level). A rise in the pair is possible, but it's best to buy on corrections. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2:

Alternatively, I will buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.40 level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal. Growth is expected toward the 154.93 and 155.69 levels.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 154.40 level is breached (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.60, where I plan to exit sales and open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from this level). Selling pressure may persist into the first half of the day. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2:

Alternatively, I will sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.93 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and prompt a downward reversal. Declines are expected toward the 154.40 and 153.60 levels.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.