Analysis of Friday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair remained in stormy conditions on Friday. This time, a downward movement prevailed—but that didn't make things any easier. It wouldn't have been surprising if we had seen another dollar collapse on Friday. The market is in a state of panic due to global events. The U.S. stock market is plunging, Bitcoin is crashing, and the U.S. dollar has consistently fallen throughout Donald Trump's presidency. There's no point in discussing logical, technical, or consistent movements right now. On Friday, the dollar continued to decline overnight due to Trump's new tariffs. During the European session, it began to recover sharply. By the start of the U.S. session, it dropped heavily again and rebounded strongly again. Of all these moves, the American session's activity was relatively logical, as the Nonfarm Payrolls report exceeded forecasts and Jerome Powell once again adopted a hawkish stance.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

In the 5-minute timeframe, many trading signals were generated on Friday. Novice traders could have opened trades nearly every hour. We don't believe such volatile movements should be traded—especially when the market is panicking and behaving emotionally. Just count how many times the price reversed during the day—and it was a substantial move each time.

Trading Strategy for Monday:

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend in the hourly timeframe. It is uncertain how long this situation will continue, as no one can predict how many additional tariffs Trump may impose. Multiple escalations in the trade war are possible as many countries prepare to respond to the U.S. with reciprocal measures. And Trump has already declared that any countermeasures will trigger further tariffs from the U.S.

On Monday, markets will likely remain in a state of shock. We refrain from forecasting any movements. Describing the current situation across all markets is quite challenging.

On the 5-minute chart, consider the following levels: 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0859–1.0861, 1.0888–1.0896, 1.0940–1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132–1.1140, 1.1189–1.1191, 1.1275–1.1292.

The only relatively important releases for Monday will be retail sales in the Eurozone and industrial production in Germany. However, considering last week's developments and the ongoing market panic, it is unlikely these reports will significantly impact the pair's movement.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.