empty
19.04.2023 12:31 PM
Oil market may face weak demand

This image is no longer relevant

Early on Wednesday, oil prices were falling amid expectations of a slump in demand. Thus, at the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI oil futures for June delivery were trading at $80.51 per barrel, down 0.48% from the closing value of the previous trading day. Brent crude futures for June delivery fell by 0.47% to $84.37 per barrel.

Due to existing market concerns about demand, oil prices continue to trade within a certain range. Doubts about demand have arisen following yesterday's publication of China's GDP data for the first three months of this year. On a yearly basis, the economic growth totaled 4.5%. It is positive news, as the data exceeded analysts' forecasts of a 4% rise. That is, China's economy grew faster than expected, and the recovery is mostly on track after most quarantine restrictions were lifted earlier this year.

Nevertheless, the country's economic recovery remains significantly uneven. Although demand in the services sector and infrastructure spending recovered after the pandemic, weak inflation and a drop in imports indicate that demand remains weak.

Moreover, data on industrial production growth was also disappointing as it did not meet expectations for the second month in a row. According to the latest data, industrial growth in China totaled just 3.9%, whereas everyone had expected a final figure of at least 4%.

Chinese production, which is almost the main driver of the country's economy, is recovering with difficulty. This could be partially explained by sluggish foreign demand for Chinese goods.

China's economic recovery is one of the main factors driving the growth in oil demand this year. That is why any economic report from this country is closely monitored by investors. As for Russian exports, last week the indicator returned to average levels after falling at the end of March. Oil shipments from Russian ports now amount to 3.4 million barrels per day, about 3.1 million of which goes to India and China. As we can see, the export of Russian crude remains stable, and Russian production has not been reduced yet.

Another important factor for the oil market is the situation in the financial market. Upcoming meetings of the world's central banks will shed light on the prospects for the largest economies, as it will become clear to what extent interest rates will be raised. In addition to the global recession expectations, monetary policy tightening also reduces the inflow of cheap money into commodity markets.

According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the probability of a rate hike at the meeting on May 3 is already 89%. Notably, a week ago, it was only 40%. In June, however, there is a 70% chance that the interest rate will not be raised. In September, a decrease is expected. However, this will become possible if inflation starts to slow down sharply between April and June or if the banking sector in the world's largest economy is again on the brink of collapse.

According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), commercial crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week. However, official statistics have not yet been published. The Department of Energy will release it this evening. Analysts suppose that oil inventories decreased by only 1.1 million barrels.

Andreeva Natalya,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

La livre prise au piège : pourquoi l'inflation au Royaume-Uni est-elle plus effrayante qu'une récession aux États-Unis

Un nouveau chapitre s'ouvre sur le marché des devises, et la livre sterling semble l'écrire. Les données sur l'inflation d'avril ont été un véritable choc pour les investisseurs : l'Indice

Anna Zotova 00:05 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Indices en baisse, envolée de Tesla et effondrement de Julius Baer : une journée de contrastes marqués sur les marchés

Les indices boursiers de référence sont en baisse : * Dow -0,27 % * S&P 500 -0,39 % * Nasdaq -0,38 % Tesla est en hausse après que Musk

12:40 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Bulletin d'actualités du marché américain pour le 21 mai

Après un rallye stupéfiant de 8,6 billions de dollars, le marché américain montre des signes de fatigue. Malgré des indicateurs macroéconomiques négatifs et la récente dégradation de la note

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:23 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Le Dollar n'est plus le roi. Ce que vous devez savoir

Historiquement, le dollar américain a été le principal refuge sûr lors de crises comme les guerres, les sanctions et les chocs bancaires ; les investisseurs ont tendance à se tourner

Anna Zotova 00:59 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Digest des nouvelles du marché américain pour le 20 mai

Malgré la dégradation de la note de crédit des États-Unis et la hausse des rendements des bons du Trésor, les investisseurs particuliers continuent à acheter activement des actions. Les achats

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:16 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Les Marchés Progressent Modestement : Dow +0,32 %, Nasdaq +0,02 %, tandis que Novavax Bondit Après l'Approbation du Vaccin

Le Dow Jones en hausse de 0,32 %, le S&P 500 en hausse de 0,09 %, le Nasdaq en hausse de 0,02 %.TXNM Energy grimpe après l'accord avec Blackstone.Novavax bondit

Thomas Frank 11:18 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin : À quoi s'attendre cette semaine. BTC atteint 107 000 $ - Le record peut-il tenir ?

La cryptomonnaie principale lutte pour maintenir sa position, même si ce n'est pas toujours un long fleuve tranquille. Actuellement, le BTC est en tête, ce qui simplifie légèrement la tâche

Larisa Kolesnikova 00:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

La consommation aux États-Unis perd de son élan

Des bénéfices à l'horizon : Target, Lowe's, Home Depot. Walmart met en garde contre des hausses de prix en raison des tarifs douaniers. Les ventes au détail aux États-Unis ralentissent

13:30 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Résumé du marché américain pour le 19 mai

Malgré des déclarations encourageantes concernant les progrès des négociations commerciales et des visites diplomatiques de haut niveau, les prévisions pour le S&P 500 restent limitées. Les analystes soulignent le manque

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:20 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Le consommateur américain ralentit : ce que disent Target, Lowe's et Walmart

Cette semaine, Wall Street se concentrera sur les rapports financiers des plus grands détaillants américains pour évaluer comment les conditions commerciales changeantes affectent l'économie et si le récent rallye boursier

Thomas Frank 10:35 2025-05-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.