Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.0893 occurred when the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, losses were recorded since the expected downward movement did not occur.

The disappointing U.S. retail sales data released earlier triggered a noticeable weakening of the U.S. dollar, preventing the sell entry for the euro from materializing. Market participants interpreted these figures as a sign of slowing economic growth in the U.S., reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining a tight monetary policy. Given that this is not the first weak report on the American economy, it is unsurprising that the dollar continues to lose ground against the euro.

Today, several important economic reports will be released in the eurozone. Data on the eurozone trade balance and ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the eurozone, including the current situation index, may positively impact euro buyers. Strong readings for these indicators will reinforce the upward trend in EUR/USD, while disappointing data could trigger a correction, opening opportunities for speculation.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.0924 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0969. At 1.0969, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro, anticipating a 30-35 pip downward movement. The euro is expected to rise in the first half of the day, continuing the uptrend if strong data from Germany supports it. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0904 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside, with expected growth to 1.0924 and 1.0969.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0904 (red line on the chart), with a target of 1.0868, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip move back up. Selling pressure on the pair will likely return if German reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0924 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward, with expected declines to 1.0904 and 1.0868.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.