empty
18.03.2025 03:35 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on March 18: The British Pound is Flying North Again

GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair again showed an upward movement despite having no reason. The market continues to buy the British pound purely out of inertia, much like Bitcoin. Bitcoin often rises simply because everyone is buying it, hoping it will be worth millions. The same logic applies to the pound—the exchange rate rises, so traders keep buying, which fuels further growth. There were no significant events in the UK on Monday, and the only report from the U.S. supported the dollar. However, even a minimal strengthening of the U.S. currency did not occur. Donald Trump did not introduce new tariffs or sanctions that day, but that did not help. After a short pause, the British currency resumed its growth as if nothing had happened. Looking for logic in the current movements is pointless.

From a technical standpoint, on the hourly timeframe, one uptrend is replaced by another uptrend. It sounds paradoxical, but that's the reality. There are no corrections, not even minimal ones. The pound rises on days when there are fundamental reasons for it and on days when there are none. It's a one-sided movement.

Despite the lack of logic in Monday's movements, there were still good profit opportunities. The only trading signal of the day formed right at the market opening at night when the price rebounded from the critical line. However, when the European session began, the price was already very close to the Kijun-sen line, meaning traders could have entered long positions slightly later. By evening, the pound was trading in the 1.2981-1.2987 area, where profits from long positions could have been secured. The pound's growth may well continue even higher.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

COT reports on the British pound indicate that sentiment among commercial traders has been fluctuating over recent years. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and typically hover around the zero mark. Currently, they are close to each other, suggesting a roughly equal number of buy and sell positions.

On the weekly timeframe, the price initially broke through the 1.3154 level before dropping to the trend line, which it subsequently breached. This break suggests that the pound is likely to continue its decline. However, there was also a rebound from the second-to-last local low on the weekly chart, indicating that the market might be entering a period of sideways movement.

According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group opened 12,900 BUY contracts and 2,300 SELL contracts. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 10,600 contracts over the week.

The fundamental background still does not provide justification for long-term purchases of the British pound. The currency may continue its global downward trend. While the pound has risen significantly in recent times, this increase can be attributed largely to Donald Trump's policies.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair maintains an uptrend, having spent several days in a flat movement before now targeting a resumption of growth. A correction on the daily timeframe is long overdue. We still do not see any justification for the pound's growth in the long term. The only factor supporting the British currency is Donald Trump, who imposes sanctions and tariffs indiscriminately. And even when no new sanctions are introduced, the dollar still falls. The market is ignoring all other factors.

For March 18, we highlight the following key levels: 1.2237-1.2255, 1.2331-1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2511, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2796-1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050. The Senkou Span B (1.2760) and Kijun-sen (1.2949) lines may also serve as sources of trading signals. Setting a Stop Loss at breakeven is recommended once the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trade signals.

On Tuesday, no significant events are scheduled in the UK, while in the U.S., the most important release will be the industrial production report. Regardless of its outcome, it is unlikely to strengthen the U.S. dollar as the market continues to ignore all news supporting the U.S. currency.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
  • Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
  • Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
  • Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.
Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on June 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher throughout Monday. However, the overall technical picture of the British pound differs slightly from that

Paolo Greco 06:27 2025-06-03 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on June 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher on Monday. We had warned that the dollar would likely decline again after Trump announced increased

Paolo Greco 06:27 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 3: Trump and ISM Hammer the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair showed fairly strong upward movement on Monday. Just as expected, the U.S. dollar started falling right from the market's opening on Monday night. What else could

Paolo Greco 03:57 2025-06-03 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 3: The Pound Seized Another

As we had warned, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded strongly on Monday. The U.S. dollar got off lightly, as the fall could have been much sharper. Traders witnessed

Paolo Greco 03:57 2025-06-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on June 2nd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3555 level and planned to base market entry decisions around it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:50 2025-06-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on June 2nd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1416 level and planned to base market entry decisions around it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 18:47 2025-06-02 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on June 2? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded quite calmly throughout Friday. There were no important news or events that day, so the volatility

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-06-02 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on June 2? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded more calmly on Friday than on Thursday. This is not surprising, as the macroeconomic background was weak

Paolo Greco 06:08 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 2: The Pound Was Just Preparing for a Correction

On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair tried again to resume its mild downward movement, as the price had previously exited the ascending channel. Thus, from a technical point of view

Paolo Greco 03:55 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 2: A New Storm is Near...

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Friday, with no news of market-moving scale. In recent months, traders have paid little attention to routine macroeconomic data. Almost every week

Paolo Greco 03:55 2025-06-02 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.