See also
07.11.2024 09:18 AM
On Wednesday, U.S. stock indexes showed a sharp rise, reaching record levels, after Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election in a sensational victory. Four years after leaving the political arena, he returned, surprising many analysts and investors.
The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite indices ended the day at historic highs. Investors responded enthusiastically to the prospect of tax cuts and possible deregulation, anticipating that the new president will continue to express his views on a wide range of issues, from the dollar's exchange rate to the state of the stock market. However, increases in import tariffs, which Trump may initiate, raise concerns about inflation and budget deficits.
Investor optimism led to higher yields on U.S. government bonds, with the base yield on 10-year treasury bonds reaching a four-month high at 4.479%. Bitcoin also saw record highs, exceeding the $76,000 mark. The dollar also showed significant growth, recording its largest single-day percentage gain since September 2022.
"Investors seem to have been adjusting their portfolios to capture some of the risk exposure in anticipation of an outcome that seemed unlikely," said Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 1,508.05 points, or 3.57%, reaching 43,729.93. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose by 146.28 points, or 2.53%, to 5,929.04, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 544.29 points, or 2.95%, reaching 18,983.47.
The impressive gains in the Dow and S&P 500 on Wednesday marked the largest single-day jump since November 2022. The Nasdaq index also hit a peak unseen since February, confirming the market's positive sentiment amid political shifts. This growth reflects investor expectations for economic reforms and policy changes with Trump's return.
The financial sector stood out, surging by 6.16% and becoming the strongest of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500. Banking stocks showed substantial growth as banks may benefit from deregulation. The S&P 500 Bank Index (.SPXBK) increased by 10.68%, setting a new two-year high.
The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap companies, also rose by 5.84%, marking the largest increase since November 2022. This growth highlights expectations that small businesses will receive support through promised tax incentives and deregulation, reducing risks associated with import tariffs. However, experts warn that small companies remain vulnerable due to their reliance on credit and sensitivity to interest rate changes.
Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields may pose additional challenges for small businesses, which typically rely more on borrowed funds. "If interest rates continue to rise and reach levels seen last October, around 5%, it could be problematic not only for small companies but for the entire market," Mark Luschini cautioned.
The CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," fell by 4.22 points, reaching a six-week low of 16.27. This decline reflects market participants' confidence in stability, despite rising concerns over future inflation and potential interest rate hikes under Trump's economic policy.
Sectors sensitive to interest rates saw a decline: real estate stocks fell by 2.64%, and utilities lost 0.98%. These industries were among the few showing a downturn, as investors weighed the potential for tighter Federal Reserve policy and its impact on future borrowing costs.
In light of the current conditions, many analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points, a decision likely to be confirmed at the meeting concluding Thursday. However, traders have started adjusting their expectations, reducing bets on a December cut and the number of rate reductions expected next year, following CME's FedWatch index.
Stocks that analysts believe may benefit from Trump's second term started to rally. Trump-affiliated Media & Technology Group rose by 5.94% after a volatile session, while Tesla surged by an impressive 14.75% following support from CEO Elon Musk, who expressed backing for Trump's campaign.
"The results of these elections are leaving traces in everything happening in the markets right now," noted Paul Christopher, Head of Global Investment Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Trump's promises to adjust tariffs, cut taxes, and deregulate business have encouraged investors to invest in assets that are likely to benefit from such an economic policy.
Currency markets faced significant fluctuations as investment flows reflected concerns over Trump's potential trade policy. The Mexican peso dropped to a two-year low, while the euro was headed for its biggest daily decline since 2020, underscoring fears about possible tariffs.
Trading intensity reached new highs. By 10 a.m. Central Time, CME Group (CME.O) recorded unprecedented online trading activity for the offshore Chinese yuan, reaching a historic level of $33 billion. The Mexican peso also attracted increased attention, with the volume of futures contracts exceeding the usual average by 43%, highlighting investors' interest in instruments sensitive to tariff policy changes.
The strengthening position of Republicans in the Senate boosted investor confidence in supporting Trump's economic agenda. Although the vote count in the House of Representatives was still ongoing, a Republican victory could provide Trump with support for implementing key economic decisions, sparking market excitement.
Experts believe that the election results may have a far-reaching impact on U.S. tax and trade policy and could alter the status of the country's major financial institutions, which will inevitably affect assets worldwide.
Sales of U.S. Treasury bonds increased as investors anticipate higher consumer prices due to potential tariff hikes and expect government spending to raise debt levels. The yield on 10-year bonds reached a four-month high, pausing at 4.48%, before slightly pulling back.
According to David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, if Donald Trump successfully implements his economic initiatives, this could lead to budget deficits, tax cuts, and inflation due to new tariffs. "High inflation and increased deficits will inevitably push long-term interest rates up," the expert emphasized.
The cryptocurrency market responded positively to potential regulatory changes: Bitcoin surged to a new record as investors see Trump's victory as a chance to ease control over digital assets. BlackRock Investment Institute noted that Trump's second term could be accompanied by deregulation, including banking policy relaxation, which may boost the crypto market.
Trading began before dawn. Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O) recorded the largest overnight session since this feature launched in May 2023. Trading volume was 11 times the average as traders eagerly bought shares of companies likely to benefit from Trump's policies: from Coinbase Global (COIN.O) and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT.O) to companies linked to Trump and his supporter Elon Musk.
Political shifts have driven up shares of cryptocurrency, energy companies, and private prison operators. However, renewable energy stocks faced pressure as markets assess the likelihood of continued support under the new administration.
Now, investors are watching closely to see if Republicans can retain the House majority after securing the Senate. If Republicans maintain control in Congress, it could greatly facilitate Trump's agenda, potentially impacting a wide range of economic decisions.
On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing stocks significantly outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.51 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.84 to 1, emphasizing the optimistic market sentiment. The S&P 500 recorded 138 new 52-week highs and 12 lows, while the Nasdaq Composite set 456 new peaks, with 115 companies hitting new lows.
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 18.68 billion shares, significantly exceeding the 20-day average of 12.16 billion. Such activity reflects unprecedented investor interest in the potential impacts of Trump's return as the market anticipates economic reforms and policy shifts.
The uncertainty over U.S. politics comes at an unfortunate time for the European Union. The potential victory of Republicans led by Donald Trump has heightened concerns over sweeping tariffs on European goods, which could reach 10%, dealing a blow to exporters. Germany, whose main export market is the U.S., faces particular risks, especially in the automotive sector, where higher tariffs could significantly erode the competitiveness of German manufacturers.
News of possible tariff threats triggered a negative reaction on European stock markets. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.54%, while Germany's leading DAX index dropped by 1.13%. Investors are reassessing their portfolios amid ongoing political uncertainty.
On Thursday, attention will be split between political changes and key monetary policy decisions. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank, and Norway's central bank are all set to announce their rate decisions, which could significantly impact global markets, heightening volatility and awareness of economic shifts.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the interest rate by a quarter point at this meeting. However, investors' main focus will be on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says about new inflation risks linked to potential tariffs and immigration restrictions proposed by the Trump administration. Experts believe that the regulator's future steps may depend on how quickly inflationary pressures mount.
The Bank of England is also considering a quarter-point rate cut, and analysts are focused on potential signals regarding future inflationary pressures. The new government budget, which could drive inflation, is a source of concern for markets, and investors are closely watching for any financial forecasts from U.K. authorities.
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to make a more significant cut, lowering the rate by half a point. Meanwhile, Norway's central bank will likely maintain a wait-and-see approach, keeping rates unchanged as the market faces continued uncertainty.
You have already liked this post today
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
