昨日,英國公布了三月份的通脹數據。核心消費者物價指數(CPI)從年增率3.0%下降至2.8%,而總體CPI從年增率2.8%下降至2.6%,低於2.7%的預測值。英鎊試圖朝1.3311的目標水平上漲,但未能如願,當天僅上漲了11點。今晨,價格已移動至1.3184–1.3208的區間。
然而,日線圖顯示價格精確測試了上升價格通道的上邊界。這個測試比我們預計提前了一天進行,但多頭已經完成其任務,一切都準備好迎接反轉。
從1月13日至4月16日的增長情況可以用費波那契網格完美描述。23.6%的回撤水平與我們在1.3101的支撐相吻合,而38.2%的水平與1.2816/47的目標範圍一致。Kruzenshtern線也正向該區域移動。若跌破此支撐,可能會為英鎊長期下跌鋪路。
在四小時圖上,價格正在嘗試進入1.3184–1.3208的支撐區域,同時Marlin振盪器達到下行趨勢區域的邊界。價格和振盪器同時突破支撐位將加強看跌動能。第一個目標是1.3101。
週五,歐元/美元匯率上升至1.1374水準後反彈,並逆轉支持美元。空頭再次發起攻擊,但僅是短暫的,整體而言仍然較為疲弱。
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