02.04.2025 12:22 PM
今天，USD/CAD 貨幣對試圖停止其先前的跌勢，試圖在 1.4300 水平之上穩住腳步。預計美國總統唐納．川普將於北美交易時段宣佈關稅措施，這造成了一定的不確定性，交易者可能會處於觀望狀態，等待市場的反應。
因美國新關稅而潛在的加元疲弱確實是重要因素。然而，近期油價的上漲——這通常對和商品相關的加元有利——可能有助於抵消負面影響。有趣的是，美國聯邦儲備系統減息的預期也限制了美元的增長，令USD/CAD 貨幣對處於複雜的情況，限制了多頭的表現。
從技術角度來看，100 天簡單移動均線（SMA）的支撐是一個重要觀察點。然而，在採取積極短倉之前，明智的做法是等待1.4300圓週關鍵水準下方的持續突破及認同。隨後的下跌可能會將該貨幣對拖至上週的波動低點附近1.4235，並有可能延伸至1.4200心理關鍵位的下方。明確跌破該區域可能對賣方構成新的催化劑，特別是因為相對強弱指數（RSI）剛開始轉向負值區域。
另一方面，任何進一步上漲將在50天SMA和1.4350水準遇到阻力。突破該阻力可能會引發一輪短倉補位，讓該貨幣對重新站上1.4400。進一步的買盤可能打開接近1.4440–1.4445中間阻力區的通道，並有可能進一步上漲至1.4480區域以及關鍵心理關卡1.4500及更高水平。
然而，只要震盪指標仍低於50，該貨幣對的最低阻力路徑仍然指向下行。
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