06.11.2024 01:46 PM
今日，由於特朗普勝選引發的美元反彈，澳元兌美元走到多月低點。
日內超過130 點的急劇下跌是受強勁的美元需求驅動。美國大選出口民調顯示，共和黨候選人唐納德·特朗普領先，使美元指數飆升至四個月高位。此外，共和黨有望在眾議院中獲得多數席位。
除了這些因素外，特朗普的總統任期也引發了對新關稅引入以及與中國可能爆發貿易戰的擔憂，進一步對澳元施加壓力。對赤字支出的擔憂以及對美聯儲減息力度不如預期劇烈的預期，推動美國國債收益率上升。這使美元走強，給澳元兌美元帶來了進一步的壓力。
然而，風險情緒上升，從美國期貨大幅上升中可見睹，導致美元部分獲利了結。此外，澳洲儲備銀行(RBA)的強硬立場和中國大規模刺激措施提振商業活動的跡象，限制了澳元的損失，促使澳元兌美元的日內空頭回補。
然而，鑑於美元的普遍看漲情緒，尚無確定目前現貨價格能否積累動能或嘗試反彈是否被視為更多的賣出機會。因此，在確認澳元兌美元已形成短期底部之前，謹慎應該等待強有力的買盤跟進。這一謹慎展望得到日線圖振盪器的支持，後者仍在負面區間，加強了當前看跌的預測。
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