The main component of the dollar's weakness yesterday was a report from China indicating that their manufacturing sector is growing strongly. It is an important component of China's economic recovery after its massive shutdown. Another factor putting bearish pressure on the dollar was the strength of the euro. Together, these fundamental events led to a 0.39% decline in the dollar.
Also, in the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. manufacturing data shows that inflation continues to rise.
The ISM said on Wednesday that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 47.7% in February from 44.7% in January. These data coincided with the consensus forecast.
The report also noted that activity in the manufacturing sector continues to be at its lowest level since May 2020, when the global economy was forced to stop.
Values of such diffusion indices above 50% mean economic growth, and vice versa. The further away from 50%, higher or lower, the faster or slower the rate of change.
The report said that the price index rose to 51.3%. This is the first time in four months that U.S. producer prices have begun to rise.
Analysts say rising manufacturing prices could mean that the Federal Reserve will not be able to control inflation even as it continues to aggressively tighten monetary policy.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 73.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points and 26.2% that the Fed will be more aggressive in raising rates by 50 basis points.
Looking at the components of the report, the new orders index climbed to 47% from 42.5% in January. At the same time, the production index fell to 47.3% from the previous 48%.
The labor market lost momentum, returning to a lower reading of 49.1% from 50.6% in January.
On such mixed data, the dollar is still holding its former positions with small deviations, reinforcing itself with the yield of 10-year bonds.
Yields on 10-year bonds topped 4% for the first time since October.
投資者對於唐納德·特朗普緊跟股市走勢充滿信心,因此標普500指數不再需要特別的理由上漲。這個廣泛的股權指數原本在等待來自中國的好消息,但阿里巴巴的財報令投資者失望。
週四發布的 GDP 報告顯示,日本經濟在第一季度同比萎縮 0.7%,這是過去一年中的首次年度下降,且情況遠壞於預期。 經濟萎縮主要歸因於美國執行的貿易關稅和出口減少。
市場已經完全反映了美國與中國會談的結果,該會談導致達成了為期 90 天的貿易休戰。比預期疲軟的美國經濟數據抵消了週初的樂觀情緒。
週四,英鎊/美元貨幣對橫盤整理,波動性低,這是過去一個月英鎊的典型行為模式。首先出現了典型的水平區間,現在我們看到了帶有輕微下行趨勢的「波動」。
週四,歐元/美元貨幣對雙向波動,但最終仍保持在移動平均線下方。它位於移動平均線下方的位置使我們預期美元將進一步增強。
上週,唐納·川普宣布在他的「美國解放運動」下,與英國簽署了第一份協議。後來揭示該協議尚未簽署,談判可能還需要幾週時間。
中國商品正在大量湧入歐洲市場,但歐元/美元的多頭並未因此感到恐慌。儘管美國已經減少了從中國進口的關稅,但加權平均關稅仍然高達39%——這是一個顯著的高比率。
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