On Friday, the US published mixed data. Thus, the euro was quite stable. On the one hand, durable goods orders dropped by 2.1%, whereas economists had expected a decline of just 0.5%. Meanwhile, new home sales, which should have decreased by 5.0%, increased by 5.8%. The reports were published at a different time and each of them should have influenced the market. Thus, the US dollar was expected to decline and then recoup all the losses. However, the situation was the opposite. The market simply ignored the macroeconomic data. There is no wonder since all the previous week, the market was ignoring all the reports and the euro was trading in a narrow range. What is more, Friday was the last working day before Christmas and it seemed that investors left for the holidays long ago. Today, the US and Europe continue to celebrate the holiday. That is why the market is likely to remain stuck until the next year.
US Durable Goods Orders
The euro/dollar pair has been trading within the sideways channel of 1.0580/1.0660 for the second week in a row. This movement points to uncertainty among traders and an accumulation process. Traders should also take into account that trading activity usually falls in the last working days of the year.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering along the mid line 50, which corresponds to a flat movement. On the daily chart, the indicator is moving in the upper area of 50/70, which points to the bullish sentiment.
On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs have numerous intersections, which corresponds to the flat movement. On the daily chart, the indicator is ignoring local price changes. The MAs are headed upwards.
Outlook
The long-lasting sideways movement may lead to new price changes. Under the current conditions, traders should wait for the price settlement beyond either limit. In this case, they will get a technical signal of a breakout, which will point to further price movement.
In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday periods, the indicator is providing a mixed signal because of stagnation. In the mid-term period, the indicators are ignoring local price changes, still providing a buy signal.
由於缺乏任何宏觀經濟數據,貨幣市場繼續在上週五達到的水平附近鞏固盤整。由於今天的經濟日程表空無一物,加上歐洲央行即將於週四召開的會議,這一鞏固狀態可能轉變為停滯。
美國的失業率從4.1%上升至4.2%,這並不完全出乎意料。然而,美元卻有所走強。
歐元區零售銷售增長顯著放緩,從3.0%下降到1.9%,遠低於最悲觀的預測。然而,歐元仍然設法上升。
歐元區生產者價格的下降速度從-3.4%放緩至-3.2%,這與預期的加速至-3.5%相反。這表明歐洲的通脹雖然可能下降,但速度可能會比預期更慢。
在美國,職缺數量本應減少63,000個,但實際卻增加了372,000個。然而,從這些數據中很難得出任何結論,因為其背後的原因仍不明朗。
歐元區的失業率並未從6.3%上升至6.4%,而是保持不變。然而,這並沒有對市場造成影響,價格保持平穩。
儘管歐元區的年通脹率從2.0%加速至2.3%,歐元未能上升,甚至有所減弱。儘管跌幅有限,這仍然顯得不合常理。
正如預期,美國聯邦公開市場委員會的會議記錄並未透露任何新的信息。考慮到美元的超買狀態,預計可能會繼續調整走勢,即歐元的某種增強。
儘管市場有一些波動,但基本上處於停滯狀態。這種模式可能會持續到今晚的FOMC會議紀要發布。
歐元區的初步 PMI 數據帶來了負面驚訝。所有指標不增反降。
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