empty
28.08.2020 02:40 PM
EUR/USD: Fed may sink the dollar, but it is not in a rush to move to the bottom

This image is no longer relevant

Fed's Chairman, Jerome Powell, confirmed the new regulator's policy, which implies a likely rise in inflation above the targeted level of 2% as well as outlined employment growth as the main goal of the Central Bank, during yesterday's virtual symposium in Jackson Hole.

In view of his statements, the yield on US Treasuries rose to the highest level in several months, which supported the dollar. The USD index rebounded sharply, bouncing from a weekly low of 92.4 points and adding about 1%. The expected change in the FRS rate was one of the drivers of this movement: investors expected that the Central Bank would change the target average inflation.

However, the US currency quickly lost its achievements, as traders consider higher inflation in the future and its impact on real profitability.

Analysts in ING said the US Central Bank will keep interest rates low for a longer time and be tolerant of higher inflation, which will be the ground for the formation of negative real Treasury yields and the decline of the USD.

But they added that the main problem for further quick sell-off of the US currency is positioning. The net speculative short dollar positions and long positions in EUR/USD are near their highs since March 2018

Although Powell's statements left the dollar under pressure, the fact that the Fed still refuses to adopt a policy of negative interest rates, preferring to keep them near zero, is positive for the US dollar.

In addition, Fed's promise of cheap money and sufficient liquidity attracts investors as well as the USD.

This image is no longer relevant

It is assumed that the new policy of the Central Bank will help revive the national economy and allow it to entirely move forward.

Moreover, market participants waited for the Fed's Chairman cautious comments, but instead he called the US economy "healthy", except for areas affected by the COVID-19.

Against the background of his statements, the EUR/USD pair rose above the level of 1.19.

Thus, the euro is still trading near two-year highs against the US dollar. However, recent statistics from Europe and the US indicate that the topic of the gap in the pace of recovery of the American and European economies may play in the opposite direction, which is positive for the dollar.

The market has recently seen relatively strong economic performance in the United States, such as durable goods and housing data. On the contrary, European PMI releases did not meet expectations.

Investors, in turn, continue to ignore the rise in coronavirus cases in the EU, from which Spain is still in the lead.

At the same time, the number of new cases of COVID-19 infection continues to decline in the United States and this could support the dollar.

However, we should also consider other important factors such as the US presidential election, before which investors can take a more cautious position, which will give the dollar a chance to grow.

Meanwhile, Euro's further strengthening is unlikely to be unnoticed by the ECB, which is concerned about the recovery of the European economy after the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

It should be noted that the ECB calmed down the bulls' intensity last in August-September 2017, when the EUR/USD rate exceeded 1.20. Thus, we can expect similar verbal interventions from Frankfurt, if the main currency pair shows fast growth again this Autumn.

Viktor Isakov,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

財報巡禮:從Adidas的運動鞋到Boeing的噴射機,季度報告推動市場

週三,美國股市因美中貿易談判進展的新希望而上漲。投資者對雙方和解的信號作出回應,對這兩個全球最大經濟體之間經濟緊張局勢的緩和前景充滿信心。

Thomas Frank 13:15 2025-04-24 UTC+2

4月24日美國市場新聞摘要

美國股票指數,包括S&P 500和Nasdaq 100,由於對貿易談判取得進展的樂觀情緒而錄得穩定上漲。儘管白宮並未給出明確立場,投資者情緒因美國潛在減少關稅的猜測而受到提振。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:05 2025-04-24 UTC+2

特朗普行動,市場反應:日經指數上漲2%,美元走強

川普的言論重振亞洲市場 週三,在美國總統唐納·川普發表一系列鼓舞人心的言論之後,亞洲股市終於迎來了一次喘息。這位美國領導人消除了有關可能解雇聯準會主席鮑威爾的擔憂,同時也表達了在與中國的貿易談判中採取較柔和語氣的準備意願。

12:35 2025-04-23 UTC+2

4月23日美國市場新聞摘要

美國市場顯示出不穩定的跡象。關於中美貿易衝突可能降溫的積極信號帶來了希望,但專家警告不要過於樂觀。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:17 2025-04-23 UTC+2

特朗普發表言論後市場反應:日經指數上漲2%,美元走強,中國觀望結果

由於唐納德·特朗普發表了一系列令人鼓舞的聲明,亞洲股市終於在週三解除了壓力。這位美國總統打消了外界對美聯儲主席傑羅姆・鮑威爾可能被解雇的擔憂,同時表現出在與中國的貿易對話中採取較溫和立場的意願。

Thomas Frank 10:52 2025-04-23 UTC+2

4月22日美國市場新聞摘要

隨著對經濟增長放緩及貿易關稅影響的擔憂加劇,S&P 500和Nasdaq 100指數持續下滑。市場持續波動,投資者在不確定性加劇的環境中調整策略。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:13 2025-04-22 UTC+2

川普、美聯儲和黃金達到3,000美元?市場對令人驚訝的信號作出回應

投資者越來越擔心在唐納·川普的領導下,聯邦儲備系統的獨立性。美國資產正在下滑,美元兌歐元的匯率降至三年來的最低水平,日元和瑞士法郎等傳統避險貨幣正在增值。

11:46 2025-04-21 UTC+2

美國市場新聞摘要—4月21日

S&P 500 和 Nasdaq 再次下跌,此前唐納德·特朗普猛烈抨擊聯邦儲備系統。他的評論對央行的獨立性提出了質疑,加劇了市場對通脹的擔憂。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:41 2025-04-21 UTC+2

特朗普、美聯儲、3,000美元黃金?市場對警示標誌作出反應

隨著政治對美國聯邦儲備系統的施壓加劇及貿易風險上升,亞洲股市和美國期貨在周初開盤時出現大幅下跌,反映了日益增長的擔憂。 特朗普總統對美聯儲主席鮑威爾的嚴厲批評成為焦點。

Thomas Frank 10:18 2025-04-21 UTC+2

美國市場新聞摘要 - 4月18日

唐納德·特朗普再次加大了對聯邦儲備委員會主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的批評力度,再次呼籲立即下調利率。這種新的政治壓力讓聯準會面臨更高的緊張局勢,目前聯準會仍然保持謹慎態度。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:09 2025-04-18 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.