Robert Carnell, an ING chief economist, recommends paying attention to unexpectedly strong business performance in China. According to the report of Caixin Agency, business activity in the manufacturing sector of China in September rose to 51.4 points from 50.4 points in August, the growth rate can be called surprisingly strong. "In reality, the Caixin manufacturing index has been dominated by an unstable but upward trend since its fall in January this year, when the index fell to 48.3 points. New evidence suggests that more export-oriented private-sector firms, which make up the bulk of this study, actually see prospects, which explains the increase in the activity. Even the export order index, which so far remains in negative territory, seems to indicate that things are not going so badly," said Carnell.
At the same time, there is no certainty that the Caixin indicator, which determines the state of activity in the service sector, will also grow actively. Most analysts believe that the index is almost unchanged and will be 52.0 points in September (52.1 points in August). This seems like a reasonable guess. "If I had to guess, I would say this study should converge with the production counterpart, although the correlation between the two seems to be virtually nonexistent (0.09 since early 2017). Today's modest leap will not seem so unexpected, but the likelihood of a strong rise is very low."
儘管經濟不確定性揮之不去,美國股市指數持續上升。投資者的樂觀情緒來自於美中貿易談判取得進展的預期。
S&P 500 和 Nasdaq 指數繼續上升,儘管其他行業表現不一,但仍保持上漲勢頭。特朗普政府的立場有所軟化,加上預期進一步減免關稅,這令投資者信心增強。
儘管市場波動性高,但S&P 500和道瓊斯指數週一收盤於正值。投資者密切關注關稅談判可能進展的線索,這是一個充滿企業財報和關鍵經濟數據的繁忙週。
S&P 500 和納斯達克在上一個交易日收高,儘管亞洲和歐洲交易所表現動盪。投資者現聚焦於即將公布的經濟數據及科技巨頭如 Microsoft 和 Apple 的財報。
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