Today, the dollar is falling as part of the Asian trading session, as the demand for safe currencies turned out to be lower than the recovery in the global stock market, while the euro rose in the hope of resolving the budget crisis in Italy.
Recall that the dollar has been actively growing in the last two trading sessions, as the appetite for risk has declined amid fears of a slowdown in global growth and fueling the trade conflict between the United States and China.
The dollar index fell today by 0.1%, to 96.62. Thus, the indicator lost 0.13 percent compared to the previous trading session.
Analysts believe that the medium-term direction of the dollar will be determined by estimates of the tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
The Fed is expected to announce its fourth rate hike in 2018 in December, but investors are beginning to doubt how many times the Fed can raise the rate next year without risking to slow the growth rate of the US economy, which still persists.
According to a Reuters poll published this week, the median of analysts' forecasts shows three more increases in the Fed's rate next year, to 3.00-3.25% by the end of 2019.
The survey also showed that economists have increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States in the next two years to 35%.
"It is expected that the Fed will go for the next rate increase in December but this meeting is becoming much more focused, as the market is looking for any signals from the regulator," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore.
The expert also added that while the Bank of Singapore still expects the Fed to raise rates four times in 2019, any changes in the point-to-point policy forecasts could trigger a significant re-evaluation of this forecast.
美國市場顯示出不穩定的跡象。關於中美貿易衝突可能降溫的積極信號帶來了希望,但專家警告不要過於樂觀。
隨著對經濟增長放緩及貿易關稅影響的擔憂加劇,S&P 500和Nasdaq 100指數持續下滑。市場持續波動,投資者在不確定性加劇的環境中調整策略。
S&P 500 和 Nasdaq 再次下跌,此前唐納德·特朗普猛烈抨擊聯邦儲備系統。他的評論對央行的獨立性提出了質疑,加劇了市場對通脹的擔憂。
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